South Florida — 2026 schedule & results record 5-2 · model's picks 6-1 so far
Proj rating 3.2 · SOS -7.0 · Mean wins 8.4 · Picked 10-2 · Vegas 8.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat 09/05 | Florida International | home | W 19–9 | -14.5 ✗ | +13.3 | 78% | W ✓ | |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | Army | away | W 28–24 | +3 ✓ | +5.3 | 62% | W ✓ | |
| 3 | Sat 09/19 | Delaware State | home | W 59–17 | -37.5 ✓ | +33.8 | 98% | W ✓ | |
| 4 | Sat 09/26 | Bowling Green | away | W 14–6 | -17.75 ✗ | +12.5 | 77% | W ✓ | |
| 5 | Sat 10/03 | Temple | home | L 13–17 | -5.5 ✗ | +11.2 | 75% | W ✗ |
South Florida -6.5 · LOSS -30 |
| 6 | Thu 10/08 | UTSA | away | L 24–31 | +5.5 ✗ | -0.7 | 48% | L ✓ |
South Florida +7.5 · WIN +17 |
| 7 | Sat 10/17 | Kent State | home | W 29–2 | -20.5 ✓ | +19.1 | 86% | W ✓ |
South Florida -20 · WIN +26 |
| 9 | Sat 10/31 | UAB | home | — | -8.25 | +17.0 | 84% | W | |
| 10 | Fri 11/06 | East Carolina | away | — | — | -1.1 | 48% | L | |
| 11 | Thu 11/12 | Memphis | home | — | — | +3.8 | 58% | W | |
| 12 | Sat 11/21 | Florida Atlantic | away | — | — | +5.6 | 63% | W | |
| 13 | Fri 11/27 | Tulane | home | — | — | +4.6 | 61% | W |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.